The Does April Really Matter in MLB Debate

May 3, 2011

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan.

Here we are in early May and the MLB standings are a bit confusing. The team with the best record in baseball is not the team many predicted – it’s the Cleveland Indians of all teams. A 18-8 April does not earn any team a championship, but it is as noteworthy as the New York Yankees’ 17-8. It’s as good as the Phillies as well. Since the Yankees and the Phillies are legitimate name-brand contenders, then the Indians must be for real also, right?

Unfortunately, that question does not have a simple answer… making it a great candidate for an eternal baseball debate. Does a strong April REALLY matter for Major League Baseball teams?

Loyal Homer will argue that an excellent April is not indicative of a great season while Bleacher Fan will argue that a great April means a great season is in the works.

Who do you agree with? Check back here and find out how the judge rules later this week.

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The Does April Really Matter in MLB Debate… Pride Goeth BEFORE the Fall, and Winning in April Goeth INTO the Fall

May 3, 2011

Read the opposing argument from Loyal Homer.


The first month of baseball is officially in the books, and the biggest story from the month of April has been the play of the Cleveland Indians.

The upstart Tribe has just turned in the greatest start in the 110 year history of their storied franchise, finishing April tied for the best record in baseball at 18-8, and currently owning a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central.

This is a better start than any of the AL Championship teams from the 1990s ever saw, and it’s better than the World Series Champion 1948 team. In fact, even the 1954 Indians (a team that went on to win 111 games that year) would have trailed its 2011 counterparts by two games when April turned to May.

So, why is it that most people are STILL not yet ready to give the Indians (who own the best record in baseball) any respect? Many writers around the country are reluctant to do more than acknowledge that the Indians had a good start to the season. And, of all the major publications online, only CBSSports.com has the guts to put the Indians atop the Power Rankings (most still refuse to put Cleveland even in the top three).

I am not trying to make a claim that the Indians are destined for a World Series championship, but the team has clearly played as the best team in baseball so far. They swept five of their nine series, and have not lost at home in over a month. They swept the pre-season AL favorite Boston Red Sox, and just completed a thrilling sweep of the Detroit Tigers, a team many analysts’ pick to be the AL Central champions.

With the exception of a couple bumps in the road (which every team has), the rotation has been outstanding, and the bullpen has been virtually unhittable. Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, the Indians are tied with the Texas Rangers for scoring the most runs in the AL, and the Indians trail only the equally surprising Kansas City Royals for the best team batting average at .272.

So, why are people still doubting the Indians? Because 30 days ago, NOBODY thought the team could be a contender this year (I even predicted a season with fewer than 72 wins). But is a prediction from 30 days ago really any reason to discount the Indians today?

Perhaps Indians outfielder Shelley Duncan sums it up the best – “Did you ever notice that people don’t want to be wrong?”

Rather than admit that they might have actually gotten a prediction wrong, analysts-turned-prognosticators like Jayson Stark would instead try to diminish a tremendous start to the season for teams like the Indians or the Royals by attempting to tag their records with an asterisk that “this is only the first month of the season… it doesn’t really MEAN anything yet.”

DOESN’T REALLY MEAN ANYTHING?!

That’s like saying that the first inning of a game doesn’t matter, because there are still eight innings left to be played.

Let’s forget the obvious fact that the first month of the season is JUST AS important as the last month of the season. The notion that games played in the month of April should not serve as an indication of what to expect through the rest of the season for a team is absolutely absurd.

Every team is now at least 25 games deep into their season. Every team has already dealt with injuries and road trips, slumps and streaks. They have played in good weather and bad, and in front of fans both friendly and hostile. If a team after 25 games can’t at least say that they have indication of what to expect in the weeks and months ahead, then their problems are greater than where they sit in the standings.

The NFL crowns their champion after only 19 games, but baseball doesn’t mean ANYTHING after playing 25 or more? Child, please.

Last year at this point in the season the AL standings had Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Texas leading their divisions, with the Yankees sitting in the Wild Card spot, just one game behind Tampa. Guess where things stood at the end of September… the AL standings had Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Texas leading their divisions, with the Yankees sitting in the Wild Card spot, just one game behind Tampa.

And do you think there is a single person in the league – whether a player, manager, GM, or owner – who is shrugging their shoulders at their April performance because, “It doesn’t matter, anyway”? Of course not! Every single person in baseball would LOVE to have a 4.5 game division lead at this point in the season. It builds confidence for the athletes, and it sets a team that much farther ahead of the competition for the next 25 games (and more).

Obviously, there is a lot of baseball left to be played. There is a reason the playoffs are not based on season standings at the end of April. But that is the exact same reason why teams play the April games.

It is true that the Indians could blow the 4.5 game April lead over the rest of the division. But that same lead can also be blown in September. It is true that the Tigers, Twins, or White Sox could get hot, and make a stronger push for the AL Central than has been made so far. But it is also true that the season could end just as it started, with the Indians outright dominating the rest of the competition.

I’m not trying to make the case that the Indians are on course for a World Series championship. I’m not even arguing that they have the AL Central locked up. But I can guarantee you that teams like the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox are taking the Indians seriously, and the White Sox, Twins, Tigers and Royals are taking the Indians VERY seriously.

If the other teams in the league are putting stock in the performance of teams like the Cleveland Indians, shouldn’t that be good enough for Jayson Stark and company?

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The Does April Really Matter in MLB Debate… April Struggles Can Bring Later Success

May 3, 2011

Read the opposing argument from and Bleacher Fan.


We’re just over a month into the Major League Baseball season, and some surprises have evolved. The Cleveland Indians have been baseball’s biggest surprise, as through May 2, they lead MLB with an overall record of 19-8, though it’s unclear if anyone in Cleveland (outside of Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek) are paying attention. The Florida Marlins likewise have gotten off to a hot start at 18-9. Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox, teams that were expected to contend for division titles, have gotten off to mediocre starts and are in an early hole in their respective divisions.

Our judge in today’s debate, Sports Geek, has asked us to determine if the month of April is too early to determine the probable success or failure of a team. Sure, we’d love for our favorite team to win 18 games every month. But I say it is way too soon for fans of teams like the Braves, Red Sox – and even the Twins – to panic.

Folks, most teams played around 26 games through April 30, which was this past Saturday. Just 26 games! That’s less than twenty percent of the full 162 game schedule, and far too early for struggling teams to be making changes. You would think the Braves would be concerned about the slow start of Dan Uggla, who has used a recent hot streak to get his average above .200. However, the team and management realize that Uggla is traditionally a slow starter and there’s no way this guy, who has hit at least 30 home runs in four consecutive seasons, won’t rebound and post the same stats he is accustomed to posting. Is that stacked Boston lineup, highlighted by the struggles of Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkillis, really going to hit .245 all year long? Nope! Is Minnesota really going to finish last in the improved AL Central? Not with Joe Mauer coming back!

Let’s take a look at the MLB standings at the end of April 2010. Go ahead and give them a look. The New York Mets lead the NL East over the Washington Nationals. The Padres and Cardinals both led their divisions, as did the Angels. Four out of the six division leaders did not make the playoffs at all. The Mets, Cardinals, and Angels all finished with losing records. The Giants, the eventual World Series winner, trailed the Padres by 7.5 games as late as July 4. I can top that. As late as July 21, the Phillies trailed the division leading Braves by seven games. But energized by the acquisition of Roy Oswalt from Houston, the Phillies went on a tear and won the division by six games, making up an outstanding 13 games in the standings in a little over two months.

Reading that, how can Bleacher Fan say that April is a sign of things to come? I mean, do we really expect Lance Berkman to hit over .400 for most of the year? Keep in mind that this is the guy who struggled offensively in the telephone booth known as Yankee Stadium.

Yeah, it causes less stress when teams get off to good starts. But more so than any other sport, baseball is a marathon, and most definitely not a sprint. So to all the fans in Atlanta, Boston, Minnesota, and even San Francisco (currently sitting at 13-15 with very little offense)… it’s only early May! The end of the regular season is five months away!

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